The NBA Draft is today and I have been putting quite a great deal of thought into it, mostly because I am unemployed and have the time to think about such things. Since I use this blog to think critically about various issues in life I am going to apply that to what I think the Phoenix Suns need to do today.
The Nash Issue
Suns aren't going to trade Steve Nash, I think that is pretty clear. There are a contingent of people who
think the Suns should trade him, because they need to full-on rebuild instead of continuing to exist in competitive limbo.
How did the Suns get into competitive limbo (too good to get a high draft pick, not good enough to seriously contend)? Well it is simple really, they let Amare Stoudemire leave and replaced him with:
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| High-five for our awesome, cap-killing contracts |
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For the record, I don't consider Channing Frye's contract to be bad. He's not great, but he's worth $6 million/year in the current NBA (this could all change after the lockout).
The problem with trading Nash is, he is not as valuable as many Suns fans think he is. It has nothing to do with talent, it has to do with the following:
- The organization would never trade Nash to a non-contender. As nice as the rumored Minnesota trade in which the Suns would get the #2 pick is, it isn't going to happen. This limits the teams that he could be sent to, and better teams usually don't have as many young assets to send back in return for a player like Nash.
- Without Nash, the Suns are terrible and no one goes to the games. Nash drives attendance and viewership for the Suns. He means everything to the fans of the team. There isn't a contending team that can return enough quality assets to make up for losing Nash's skill and his value to the city. Value to a city, it's not something that can be measured by a stat. When I hear someone say we should trade Nash, I know they are also the person who is going to rarely watch a Suns game while they are rebuilding.
- Teams don't value Nash like Phoenix would. This is because Nash doesn't have a value to the prospective city he might be traded to. So while player A and draft pick B may look decent on paper, it would still be a disaster for Phoenix because of the huge value gap that player A and Nash would have to the city. Yet the team trying to trade Nash wouldn't, and shouldn't, include Nash's value to the Phoenix community into the talent equation of their trade.
These factors make it nearly impossible to deal Nash. The one deal that stopped and made me think was the rumored Minnesota offer, but that goes against the first point I made. The Suns only real option is to keep riding Nash for as long as he is a decent player, and hope they can surprise people like they did in 2009-10.
The Suns can compete next year
Entering the 2011-12 season (if there is one), I think the Suns can actually compete. You may think I'm crazy, but I think it is possible. The Suns had a terrible start to the season last year, and were involved in a major trade before they could figure each other out. This re-started the "feeling out" process, and by the time the Suns figured each other out they had no room for error. When they did gel, the Suns improved from 21-24 to 33-29 and looked to be playoff contenders. All this while the corpse of Vince Carter was (inexplicably) starting at SG. The Suns were then dealt injuries to Frye and Nash and were effectively done without any leeway due to their poor start.
If the Suns add a SG with a pulse and another big man (or if Robin Lopez is able to return to his 2009-10 form, but don't hold your breath), the Suns could compete for a playoff spot next year. Is it sexy? No, but at least it isn't wasting Nash's final years in Phoenix. As the Dallas Mavericks just showed us, you never really know what can happen in the NBA.
Of course the counter to this is that the Suns owner is Robert Sarver, and he kills any hope of winning. I can't argue that point, personally I believe Sarver is the worst owner in the history of the state.
Sidenote: I know Bill Bidwill is the logical choice for worst owner in the history of the state, but Bidwill never took over a championship caliber team and fucked it into oblivion quite like Sarver did.
Draft Strategy
With my thoughts on Nash and the ability for the team to compete out of the way, let's move on to tonight's draft. The Suns need to target a SG or PF, although they seem to be interested in a PG as well. Here are eight players the Suns might be looking at.
Klay Thompson SG Washington State 6-7, 206
If the Suns want to compete right away, Thompson should probably be their pick. He is a great shooter, who can shoot for mid-range or behind the arc and would probably play very similar to Jason Richardson (without the dunking) next to Nash. The issue with Klay is that he doesn't help the team defensively. Picking Klay is more of a move towards Suns teams of the past and I don't think the front office is too interested in that. Teams also seem to be concerned that he got caught smoking weed while at Wazzu. Is that really an issue? Shit, Barney Frank and Ron Paul and are efforting to decriminalize that in congress right now.
Alec Burks SG Colorado 6-6, 193
Burks is an athletic slasher with good upside and the ability to play some PG in the pros. I doubt he will be around when the Suns pick, but I think he would be the perfect player to help the team out now while still possessing enough upside to make this a pick for the future. He could do what Vince Carter did last year right away, except he would have a pulse. He is probably going to go around the 10th pick, and has some serious Paul Pierce/Danny Granger potential (in terms of when we look back on the draft in five years we will say "how did Burks slide so far?")
Tristian Thompson PF Texas 6-9, 228
The Suns like Thompson because he has potential on both sides of the ball. He is a little small to play PF, but this is the same team that gave a huge contract to Hakim Warrick, who plays PF and is actually smaller than Thompson. I think Thompson can do what Warrick did last year right away, and the Suns love his defensive potential.
Bismack Biyombo C Congo 6-9, 240
Biyombo has the best name in the draft. He also has an amazing wingspan (7-6!). On offense, he, well, did I tell you about his wingspan? His ceiling is Ben Wallace, but it is going to take him years to get to where still-developing Serge Ibaka is right now. Biyombo is a hot prospect because he played in a high-level pro league in Spain last year and averaged five rebounds and two blocks in about 17 minutes per game. He wouldn't be a bad selection for the Suns. Think of him as Lou Amundson in year one, with the potential to become Serge Ibaka.
Markieff Morriss PF Kansas 6-9, 240
I'm not sure what Morris (him or Marcus) is the good brother, but if the Suns are targeting Markieff then he is probably the lesser of the two brothers. Probably would help the Suns right away, but not a sexy pick and doesn't possess huge amounts of upside. Would be a decent selection to help the Suns compete next year. Does a lot of things well, does nothing great.
Jordan Hamilton SG/SF Texas 6-8, 223
Can shoot, can't play defense, has a game similar to Joe Johnson. Although he probably would be more like 2001-2003 Joe Johnson, and not anything like 2004-present Joe Johnson. Considering that NBADraft.net compares him to Cedric "Nuff Ced" Ceballos, I thought I would include him.
Jimmer (you know the details)
I don't need to break down Jimmer for you. Would be a huge boost to his career to play with Nash. Might not be a huge boost to the Suns 2011-12 win total, however.
Chris Singleton SF Florida State 6-9, 220
Long, athletic, a good defender whose only projected offensive skill at the moment is three-point shooting. Really wants to be Scottie Pippen, sounds more like his ceiling is Bruce Bowen. I'd like to see him on the Suns, however.
Iman Shumpert PG Gerogia Tech 6-6, 220
Suns fans are going to have a shit-fit if this selection happens, and it sounds like it is going to. Shumpert is one of the most physically-impressive people in the draft. He has amazing size for a point-guard. The only problem is it sounds like he has no idea how to play offense, how to run an offense or what shots to take. I am picturing an athletic Brian Shaw.
Kenneth Faired PF Morehead State 6-7, 225
Faried can rebound. That might be all he can do. His NBADraft.net comparison is Lou Amundson. He would help the Suns instantly on the boards and would probably play some tough defense, but he will never really evolve into more than that. Unless he becomes the next Dennis Rodman. I'd actually like the see him in Phoenix.
Special surprise sleeper: Kemba Walker! The fan base would love it.
My official prediction: Iman Shumpert's name gets called and causes a Calvin Pace-type reaction.
Who I want: If Alec Burk were to slide, it would be a steal. If not, one of the Thompsons (Klay or Tristian).